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Millwall vs QPR — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
J. Böðvarsson 70'
I. Chair 53'
12/8/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Millwall44%
×Draw29%
QPR27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.27
QPR
0.92

Millwall creates 38% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
QPR
1.28

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
73%
Millwall or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
72%
Millwall 2+ goals
36%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
60%
QPR 2+ goals
23%
QPR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
62%
QPR (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

QPR attack 0.79 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more
44%
level
29%
QPR scores more
27%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
I. ChairQPRQPR · F
8.2

Match Events

16'
Dominic Ball
53'
I. Chair↳ T. Carroll
64'
J. Böðvarsson← A. Pearce
64'
M. Smith← S. Williams
64'
R. Leonard← M. Bennett
70'
J. Böðvarsson
74'
T. Bradshaw← T. Parrott
75'
Yoann Barbet
77'
G. Thomas← T. Carroll
77'
M. Bonne← I. Chair
89'
T. Burey← J. Wallace
90'
Macauley Bonne

Possession

53%Millwall

Shots

17Millwall

Pass accuracy

51%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallQPR
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots11
2Corners2
6Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots11
4On Target6
8Off Target4
5Blocked1
8Inside Box5
9Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
438Total Passes379
323Accurate Passes272
74%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Millwall vs QPR

Millwall and QPR drew 1-1 in Championship on December 8, 2020.

Goals: I. Chair (53'), J. Böðvarsson (70').

Millwall controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Den in London.