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Millwall vs Preston — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Preston
Preston
M. Bennett 86'
S. Malone 39'
C. Evans 12'
3/2/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Millwall47%
×Draw27%
Preston26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.44
Preston
1.01

Millwall creates 43% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.26
Preston
0.99

allows per match

Millwall
1.03
Preston
1.62

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less
Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
74%
Millwall or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
23%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
76%
Millwall 2+ goals
42%
Millwall 3+ goals
18%
Preston 1+ goals
64%
Preston 2+ goals
27%
Preston 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
64%
Preston (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Preston attack 0.99 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more
47%
level
27%
Preston scores more
26%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
M. RomeoMillwallMillwall · M
7.5

Match Events

12'
C. Evans
39'
S. Malone↳ M. Romeo
58'
Jayson Molumby
58'
T. Barkhuizen← A. Gordon
80'
D. Johnson← S. Sinclair
86'
M. Smith← J. Böðvarsson
86'
M. Bennett↳ R. Woods
89'
E. Riis← B. Potts
90'
George Evans
90+2'
B. Thompson← M. Bennett

Possession

50%Millwall

Shots

13Millwall

Pass accuracy

51%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallPreston
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots6
4Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots6
3On Target2
7Off Target4
3Blocked0
8Inside Box2
5Outside Box4
Passing
50%Possession50%
426Total Passes420
298Accurate Passes277
70%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Millwall vs Preston

Millwall beat Preston 2-1 in Championship on March 2, 2021.

Goals: C. Evans (12'), S. Malone (39'), M. Bennett (86').

Millwall controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Den in London.