Millwall 1–0 Preston: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Preston

J. Wallace 33'

8/3/2019

Championship · Round 1The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Millwall47%

×Draw27%

Preston27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchPreston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Millwall

1.44

Preston

1.02

Millwall creates 41% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 60 away

1.25

creates per match

0.99

1.04

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Preston

0.99

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Preston

1.62

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Preston-0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Preston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

73%

Millwall or Preston

73%

Draw or Preston

53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

23%

Preston wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

76%

Millwall 2+ goals

42%

Millwall 3+ goals

18%

Preston 1+ goals

64%

Preston 2+ goals

27%

Preston 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

64%

Preston (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Preston away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Preston defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Preston attack 0.99 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more

47%

level

27%

Preston scores more

27%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Wallace

Millwall · M

7.7

Match Events

30'

Shaun Williams

33'

J. Wallace↳ C. Mahoney

43'

B. Bialkowski← F. Fielding

49'

Andrew Hughes

57'

J. Stockley← T. Barkhuizen

57'

B. Bodin← B. Potts

62'

Matt Smith

64'

Jayden Stockley

70'

R. Leonard← A. OBrien

74'

A. Green← P. Gallagher

78'

T. Bradshaw← M. Smith

87'

Alan Browne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallPreston

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots5

8Corners7

11Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots5

3On Target1

4Off Target4

4Blocked0

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

226Total Passes401

121Accurate Passes306

54%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2