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Millwall vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
T. Bradshaw 45'
J. Wallace 16' (pen)
E. Alioski 46'
10/5/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Millwall30%
×Draw28%
Leeds42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.06
Leeds
1.31

Leeds creates 24% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 33 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Leeds
1.58

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Leeds
0.88

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
58%
Millwall or Leeds
72%
Draw or Leeds
70%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
12%
Leeds wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
65%
Millwall 2+ goals
29%
Millwall 3+ goals
9%
Leeds 1+ goals
73%
Leeds 2+ goals
38%
Leeds 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
42%
Leeds (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Leeds defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Leeds attack 1.58 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more
30%
level
28%
Leeds scores more
42%

Leeds at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
T. BradshawMillwallMillwall · F
7.6

Match Events

14'
Gaetano Berardi
16'
J. WallacePenalty
28'
S. Williams← R. Leonard
45'
Shane Ferguson
45'
T. Bradshaw↳ S. Ferguson
46'
B. Douglas← Hélder Costa
46'
E. Alioski↳ J. Harrison
50'
Jayson Molumby
59'
Luke Ayling
62'
E. Nketiah← P. Bamford
74'
Murray Wallace
76'
T. Roberts← K. Phillips
80'
J. Böðvarsson← B. Thompson
82'
Bartosz Białkowski

Possession

32%Millwall

Shots

12Millwall

Pass accuracy

45%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallLeeds
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots5
6Corners1
14Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots5
7On Target1
5Off Target4
0Blocked0
8Inside Box2
4Outside Box3
Passing
32%Possession68%
251Total Passes555
167Accurate Passes461
67%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls14
4Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Millwall vs Leeds

Millwall beat Leeds 2-1 in Championship on October 5, 2019.

Goals: J. Wallace (16' pen), T. Bradshaw (45'), E. Alioski (46').

Leeds controlled possession (68%) and registered 5 shots to 12.

The match was played at The Den in London.