Millwall 0–3 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Huddersfield

L. O'Brien 90+3'

Pipa Ávila 89'

J. Koroma 18'

10/31/2020

Championship · Round 9The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Millwall46%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Millwall

1.38

Huddersfield

0.99

Millwall creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 12 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.03

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Huddersfield

0.96

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Huddersfield

1.49

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

73%

Millwall or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

54%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

22%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

40%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

63%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

26%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

63%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Millwall scores more

46%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

27%

Millwall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Hamer

Huddersfield · G

8.2

Match Events

18'

J. Koroma↳ A. Diakhaby

46'

M. Smith← T. Bradshaw

46'

J. Bacuna← A. Pritchard

58'

Mahlon Romeo

59'

Ryan Leonard

65'

M. Bennett← S. Malone

66'

Pipa Ávila← A. Diakhaby

79'

J. Böðvarsson← C. Mahoney

85'

F. Campbell← I. Mbenza

89'

Pipa Ávila↳ J. Bacuna

90+3'

L. O'Brien↳ J. Bacuna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallHuddersfield

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots12

10Corners2

8Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots12

4On Target7

4Off Target3

2Blocked2

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

416Total Passes532

324Accurate Passes445

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1