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Millwall vs Blackburn — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
Preview
15:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
2/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31The Den
Big match
39%
Blackburn
model favours
34%27%39%

Millwall sit 3, Blackburn 22 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Millwall34%
×Draw27%
Blackburn39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.21
Blackburn
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.29
Blackburn
1.49

allows per match

Millwall
1.14
Blackburn
1.13

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Blackburn-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
61%
Millwall or Blackburn
73%
Draw or Blackburn
66%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
14%
Blackburn wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
70%
Millwall 2+ goals
34%
Millwall 3+ goals
12%
Blackburn 1+ goals
73%
Blackburn 2+ goals
38%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
47%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 15 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.29 + Blackburn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Blackburn attack 1.49 + Millwall defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Millwall scores more
34%
level
27%
Blackburn scores more
39%

Blackburn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Blackburn fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Millwall
Balanced
Blackburn
Defensively solid
46%Possession51%
69%Pass accuracy76%
11.7ShotsBiggest gap10.4
1.31xG1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MillwallBlackburn

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Millwall
1
Draws
3
Blackburn
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
1–20–21–41–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Millwall
LDWD
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Millwall host Blackburn

February 13, 2027: Millwall take on Blackburn in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Millwall host Blackburn at The Den.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.