Millwall 3–4 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

Blackburn

O. Burke 39'

D. Watmore 37', 8'

B. Brereton 86', 63'

J. Rankin-Costello 51'

A. Wharton 22'

5/8/2023

Championship · Round 46The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Millwall43%

×Draw28%

Blackburn29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Millwall

1.32

Blackburn

1.02

Millwall creates 29% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

1.03

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Blackburn

1.39

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Blackburn+0.08on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Blackburn wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

64%

Blackburn 2+ goals

27%

Blackburn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

60%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.39 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Blackburn defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more

43%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

B. Brereton

Blackburn · F

8.9

Match Events

8'

D. Watmore↳ O. Burke

22'

A. Wharton↳ J. Rankin-Costello

37'

D. Watmore

39'

O. Burke

46'

T. Dolan← S. Thomas

46'

C. Brittain← L. Travis

51'

63'

64'

73'

73'

S. Malone← D. Watmore

82'

M. Bennett← G. Saville

82'

A. Voglsammer← T. Bradshaw

86'

B. Brereton↳ S. Szmodics

89'

Daniel Ayala← B. Brereton

90+2'

B. Dack← S. Szmodics

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBlackburn

Overview

34%Possession66%

14Total Shots13

3Corners6

7Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots13

4On Target9

5Off Target3

5Blocked1

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

290Total Passes575

176Accurate Passes465

61%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1

Championship: Millwall 3–4 Blackburn

Blackburn beat Millwall 4-3 in Championship on May 8, 2023.

Goals: D. Watmore (8', 37'), A. Wharton (22'), O. Burke (39'), J. Rankin-Costello (51'), B. Brereton (63', 86').

Blackburn controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 3–4 Blackburn