Millwall 0–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

S. Gallagher 75'

B. Dack 18'

3/6/2021

Championship · Round 35The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Millwall43%

×Draw28%

Blackburn29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.02

Millwall

1.32

Blackburn

1.02

Millwall creates 29% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

1.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Blackburn

1.38

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Blackburn wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Blackburn 1+ goals

64%

Blackburn 2+ goals

27%

Blackburn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

60%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more

43%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

S. Malone

Millwall · M

7.6

Match Events

18'

B. Dack↳ J. Rankin-Costello

43'

Ryan Woods

55'

M. Smith← B. Mitchell

62'

R. Nyambe← J. Rankin-Costello

65'

Sam Gallagher

71'

J. Rothwell← B. Brereton

71'

H. Elliott← J. Buckley

71'

B. Johnson← B. Dack

72'

T. Burey← J. Wallace

73'

S. Ferguson← M. Bennett

73'

D. McNamara← M. Romeo

75'

S. Gallagher

77'

George Evans

77'

Tom Trybull

84'

S. Williams← R. Woods

85'

Thomas Kaminski

90+2'

C. Evans← T. Trybull

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBlackburn

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots13

3Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

2On Target5

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

416Total Passes420

281Accurate Passes284

68%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides2