Millwall 1–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackburn

M. Bennett 20'

7/14/2020

Championship · Round 44The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Millwall43%

×Draw28%

Blackburn29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.02

Millwall

1.31

Blackburn

1.02

Millwall creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

1.25

creates per match

1.01

1.04

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Millwall

1.25

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Blackburn

1.38

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Blackburn

72%

Draw or Blackburn

57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Blackburn wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

64%

Blackburn 2+ goals

27%

Blackburn 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

60%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more

43%

level

28%

Blackburn scores more

29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Wallace

Millwall · F

7.4

Match Events

1'

Joe Rankin-Costello

20'

M. Bennett

34'

Lewis Travis

46'

J. Rothwell← D. Samuel

46'

S. Gallagher← D. Graham

69'

J. Böðvarsson← M. Bennett

71'

M. Wallace← M. Romeo

71'

L. Holtby← L. Travis

81'

C. Mahoney← T. Bradshaw

81'

B. Thompson← S. Ferguson

81'

J. Davenport← S. Downing

81'

J. Buckley← B. Johnson

84'

Ryan Woods

87'

J. Molumby← J. Wallace

89'

Jake Cooper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallBlackburn

Overview

36%Possession64%

11Total Shots10

7Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target2

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

10Inside Box3

1Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

304Total Passes540

195Accurate Passes433

64%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Championship: Millwall 1–0 Blackburn

Millwall beat Blackburn 1-0 in Championship on July 14, 2020.

Goals: M. Bennett (20').

Blackburn controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 1–0 Blackburn