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Millwall vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Blackburn
Blackburn
A. Armstrong 87'
J. Nuttall 86'
1/12/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Millwall43%
×Draw28%
Blackburn29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.31
Blackburn
1.02

Millwall creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Blackburn
1.01

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
71%
Millwall or Blackburn
72%
Draw or Blackburn
57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
20%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
38%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Blackburn 1+ goals
64%
Blackburn 2+ goals
27%
Blackburn 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
60%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more
43%
level
28%
Blackburn scores more
29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
H. ReedBlackburnBlackburn · M
7.8

Match Events

3'
S. Morison← T. Elliott
46'
R. Nyambe← C. Evans
64'
D. Graham← C. Conway
68'
L. Gregory← A. OBrien
74'
A. Armstrong← B. Dack
86'
J. Nuttall
87'
S. Williams← J. Meredith
87'
A. Armstrong↳ E. Bennett

Possession

49%Millwall

Shots

7Millwall

Pass accuracy

51%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallBlackburn
Overview
49%Possession51%
7Total Shots5
2Corners1
14Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots5
2On Target2
5Off Target2
0Blocked1
5Inside Box4
2Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
358Total Passes376
237Accurate Passes236
66%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls13
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Millwall vs Blackburn

Blackburn beat Millwall 2-0 in Championship on January 12, 2019.

Goals: J. Nuttall (86'), A. Armstrong (87').

Blackburn controlled possession (51%) and registered 5 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Den in London.