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Millonarios vs Jaguares — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
Preview
19:00
Jaguares
Jaguares
10/17/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 15
Big match
55%
Millonarios
model favours
55%28%18%

Millonarios score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
37%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Millonarios55%
×Draw28%
Jaguares18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.40
Jaguares
0.67

Millonarios creates 109% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.44
Jaguares
0.68

allows per match

Millonarios
0.66
Jaguares
1.36

finishing

Millonarios+0.47scores more
Jaguares-0.25scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Jaguares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
82%
Millonarios or Jaguares
72%
Draw or Jaguares
45%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
27%
Jaguares wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
75%
Millonarios 2+ goals
41%
Millonarios 3+ goals
17%
Jaguares 1+ goals
49%
Jaguares 2+ goals
15%
Jaguares 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
75%
Jaguares (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.66 · 11 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.36 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.44 + Jaguares defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jaguares attack 0.68 + Millonarios defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Millonarios scores more
55%
level
28%
Jaguares scores more
18%

Millonarios at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 71% of Millonarios’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Millonarios
Attack-heavy
Jaguares
Balanced
50%Possession46%
79%Pass accuracy78%
13.5Shots12.0
1.31xGBiggest gap0.95
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MillonariosJaguares

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Millonarios
2
Draws
4
Jaguares
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 50%
0–10–01–20–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Millonarios
LLWLD
Jaguares
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Millonarios host Jaguares

October 17, 2026: Millonarios take on Jaguares in Primera A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.