Millonarios 3–0 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Millonarios

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jaguares

D. Herazo 63'

D. Ruiz 45+1'

A. Llinás 13'

4/22/2022

Copa Colombia · Round of 16Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Millonarios57%

×Draw26%

Jaguares17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.72

Millonarios

1.54

Jaguares

0.72

Millonarios creates 114% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.67

creates per match

0.84

0.61

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Millonarios

1.67

Jaguares

0.84

allows per match

Millonarios

0.61

Jaguares

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

83%

Millonarios or Jaguares

74%

Draw or Jaguares

43%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

30%

Jaguares wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

79%

Millonarios 2+ goals

45%

Millonarios 3+ goals

20%

Jaguares 1+ goals

51%

Jaguares 2+ goals

16%

Jaguares 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

77%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Jaguares away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.67 + Jaguares defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jaguares attack 0.84 + Millonarios defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Millonarios scores more

57%

level

26%

Jaguares scores more

17%

Millonarios at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

30'

33'

45+1'

46'

R. Bustamante← C. Moya

59'

J. Pérez← J. Quintero

59'

J. Viveros← J. Altamiranda

59'

M. Balanta← D. Rodríguez

63'

D. Herazo

67'

A. Arroyo← D. Padilla

70'

D. Silva

70'

I. R. Scarpeta Silgado

73'

A. Murillo← O. Bertel

73'

E. Sosa← D. Silva

73'

J. Valencia← D. Herazo

73'

R. Celis← D. Ruiz

83'

D. Victoria← C. Gómez

Millonarios

Jaguares

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ruiz

⚽

▼

Herazo

Rosales

▼

Gómez

Manager: A. Gamero

73'▲A. Murillo←▼O. Bertel

73'▲E. Sosa←▼D. Silva

73'▲J. Valencia←▼D. Herazo

73'▲R. Celis←▼D. Ruiz

83'▲D. Victoria←▼C. Gómez

Millonarios substitutes

MurilloSosaValenciaCelisVictoriaGuerraMoreno

Manager: C. Torres

46'▲R. Bustamante←▼C. Moya

59'▲J. Pérez←▼J. Quintero

59'▲J. Viveros←▼J. Altamiranda

59'▲M. Balanta←▼D. Rodríguez

67'▲A. Arroyo←▼D. Padilla

Jaguares substitutes

BustamantePérezViverosBalantaArroyoSotoCastaño