Millonarios 2–2 Independiente Medellin

Millonarios

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Independiente Medellin

D. Ruiz 85'

D. Silva 60'

L. Pons 37'

D. Cambindo 29'

9/8/2022

Copa Colombia · Semi-finalsEstadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Millonarios42%

×Draw27%

Independiente Medellin31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillonariosExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Millonarios

1.35

Independiente Medellin

1.11

Millonarios creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

1.67

creates per match

1.61

0.61

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Millonarios

1.67

Independiente Medellin

1.61

allows per match

Millonarios

0.61

Independiente Medellin

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw

69%

Millonarios or Independiente Medellin

73%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

58%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+

20%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals

74%

Millonarios 2+ goals

39%

Millonarios 3+ goals

15%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

30%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)

58%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.67 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Millonarios defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millonarios scores more

42%

level

27%

Independiente Medellin scores more

31%

Millonarios at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

37'

41'

45+1'

45+3'

45+4'

52'

J. Méndez← A. Arregui

58'

60'

65'

68'

72'

77'

83'

83'

C. Marrugo← A. Ricaurte

83'

J. Martínez← V. Hernández

84'

85'

90'

90'

Millonarios

Independiente

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Silva

Pereira

Vásquez

⚽

▼

Ruiz

▼

Ruiz

▼

Gómez

Manager: A. Gamero

77'▲D. Cataño←▼L. Ruiz

83'▲J. Garcia←▼D. Silva

90'▲J. Valencia←▼D. Ruiz

90'▲O. Vanegas←▼C. Gómez

Millonarios substitutes

CatañoGarciaValenciaVanegasHerazoPerlazaMoreno

Manager: D. González

52'▲J. Méndez←▼A. Arregui

65'▲F. Pardo←▼J. Monroy

83'▲C. Marrugo←▼A. Ricaurte

83'▲J. Martínez←▼V. Hernández

Independiente Medellin substitutes

MéndezPardoMarrugoMartínezTorresSeguraVásquez

Copa Colombia: Millonarios 2–2 Independiente Medellin

Millonarios and Independiente Medellin drew 2-2 in Copa Colombia on September 8, 2022.

Goals: D. Cambindo (29'), L. Pons (37'), D. Silva (60'), D. Ruiz (85').

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..

Millonarios vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Millonarios 2–2 Independiente Medellin