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Millonarios vs Atletico Nacional — Copa Colombia 2019

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
11/16/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · FinalsEstadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Millonarios48%
×Draw27%
Atletico Nacional25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.44
Atletico Nacional
0.96

Millonarios creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.67
Atletico Nacional
1.30

allows per match

Millonarios
0.61
Atletico Nacional
1.22

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
75%
Millonarios or Atletico Nacional
73%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
52%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
24%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
76%
Millonarios 2+ goals
42%
Millonarios 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
66%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.67 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atletico Nacional attack 1.30 + Millonarios defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Millonarios scores more
48%
level
27%
Atletico Nacional scores more
25%

Millonarios at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Millonarios 1–1 Atletico Nacional

Millonarios and Atletico Nacional drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on November 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..