Mighty Tigers 0–1 Kamuzu Barracks: Result & Stats

Mighty Tigers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kamuzu Barracks

7/2/2023

Super League · Round 9Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mighty Tigers37%

×Draw30%

Kamuzu Barracks32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mighty TigersExpected goals in this matchKamuzu Barracks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.98

Mighty Tigers

1.08

Kamuzu Barracks

0.98

Mighty Tigers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 81 away

1.06

creates per match

1.00

0.97

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Mighty Tigers

1.06

Kamuzu Barracks

1.00

allows per match

Mighty Tigers

0.97

Kamuzu Barracks

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Tigers ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mighty Tigers or draw

68%

Mighty Tigers or Kamuzu Barracks

70%

Draw or Kamuzu Barracks

63%

Winning margin

Mighty Tigers wins by 2+

15%

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mighty Tigers 1+ goals

66%

Mighty Tigers 2+ goals

29%

Mighty Tigers 3+ goals

10%

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals

62%

Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals

26%

Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)

54%

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Tigers at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.97 · 78 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Tigers attack 1.06 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Mighty Tigers defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mighty Tigers scores more

37%

level

30%

Kamuzu Barracks scores more

32%

Mighty Tigers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mighty Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff