Mighty Barrolle 1–1 Nimba Kwado: Result & Stats

Mighty Barrolle

FT

1 – 1

Nimba Kwado

11/22/2020

LFA First Division · Round 4Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mighty Barrolle40%

×Draw25%

Nimba Kwado35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mighty BarrolleExpected goals in this matchNimba Kwado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.41

Mighty Barrolle

1.52

Nimba Kwado

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 50 away

1.74

creates per match

1.16

1.66

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle

1.74

Nimba Kwado

1.16

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle

1.66

Nimba Kwado

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Nimba Kwado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw

65%

Mighty Barrolle or Nimba Kwado

75%

Draw or Nimba Kwado

60%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+

20%

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals

78%

Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals

45%

Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals

20%

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

76%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

41%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)

53%

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more

40%

level

25%

Nimba Kwado scores more

35%

Mighty Barrolle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff