Mighty Barrolle 1–1 Invincible Eleven

Mighty Barrolle

FT

1 – 1

Invincible Eleven

12/1/2021

LFA First Division · Round 5Doris Williams Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mighty Barrolle48%

×Draw24%

Invincible Eleven28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mighty BarrolleExpected goals in this matchInvincible Eleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.28

Mighty Barrolle

1.75

Invincible Eleven

1.28

Mighty Barrolle creates 37% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 51 away

1.74

creates per match

0.90

1.66

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Mighty Barrolle

1.74

Invincible Eleven

0.90

allows per match

Mighty Barrolle

1.66

Invincible Eleven

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mighty Barrolle ↓

Invincible Eleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mighty Barrolle or draw

72%

Mighty Barrolle or Invincible Eleven

76%

Draw or Invincible Eleven

52%

Winning margin

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+

26%

Invincible Eleven wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals

83%

Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals

52%

Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals

25%

Invincible Eleven 1+ goals

72%

Invincible Eleven 2+ goals

37%

Invincible Eleven 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)

63%

Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mighty Barrolle at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.74 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mighty Barrolle scores more

48%

level

24%

Invincible Eleven scores more

28%

Mighty Barrolle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff