Miedz Legnica 1–1 Wisla Krakow: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wisla Krakow

M. Mansfeld 81'

Jesús Alfaro 46'

9/1/2023

I Liga · Round 7Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Miedz Legnica38%

×Draw25%

Wisla Krakow37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchWisla Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.46

Miedz Legnica

1.48

Wisla Krakow

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 67 away

1.80

creates per match

1.78

1.14

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Wisla Krakow

1.78

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Wisla Krakow

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Wisla Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

63%

Miedz Legnica or Wisla Krakow

75%

Draw or Wisla Krakow

62%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

18%

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

77%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

43%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

19%

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

77%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

43%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

51%

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

38%

level

25%

Wisla Krakow scores more

37%

Miedz Legnica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

R. Hoogenhout

22'

E. Satrustegui

46'

B. Jaroch← D. Szot

46'

David Juncà← Eneko Satrústegui

46'

Jesús Alfaro

51'

B. Jaroch

62'

K. Drygas← D. Michalik

62'

Tarsi← M. Lehaire

70'

D. Junca

73'

M. Mansfeld← K. Drzazga

76'

M. Carbo

76'

V. Basha← Marc Carbó

77'

T. Aguado

80'

D. Stanclik← D. Tront

80'

I. Momoh← E. Agbor

81'

M. Mansfeld

82'

S. Sobczak← Miki Villar

84'

V. Basha

85'

P. Gogół← K. Duda

87'

A. Uryga

Miedz

Wisla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Bella

62'▲K. Drygas←▼D. Michalik

62'▲Tarsi←▼M. Lehaire

73'▲M. Mansfeld←▼K. Drzazga

80'▲D. Stanclik←▼D. Tront

80'▲I. Momoh←▼E. Agbor

Miedz Legnica substitutes

DrygasTarsiMansfeldStanclikMomohGuzdekAbramowiczLewandowskiZalewski

Manager: R. Sobolewski

46'▲B. Jaroch←▼D. Szot

46'▲David Juncà←▼Eneko Satrústegui

76'▲V. Basha←▼Marc Carbó

82'▲S. Sobczak←▼Miki Villar

85'▲P. Gogół←▼K. Duda

Wisla Krakow substitutes

JarochJuncàBashaSobczakGogółOlejarkaŁasickiKrzyżanowskiBroda

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Krakow

Miedz Legnica and Wisla Krakow drew 1-1 in I Liga on September 1, 2023.

Goals: Jesús Alfaro (46'), M. Mansfeld (81').

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.

Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Krakow — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Krakow