Midtjylland W vs Nordsjælland W

Midtjylland W

Preview

12:00

Nordsjælland W

10/18/2026

Kvindeliga · Round 11

47%

Midtjylland W

model favours

47%23%30%

Nordsjælland W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

61%

over 2.5 goals

62%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Midtjylland W47%

×Draw23%

Nordsjælland W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Midtjylland WExpected goals in this matchNordsjælland W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.37

Midtjylland W

1.79

Nordsjælland W

1.37

Midtjylland W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 81 away

2.36

creates per match

1.31

1.43

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Midtjylland W

2.36

Nordsjælland W

1.31

allows per match

Midtjylland W

1.43

Nordsjælland W

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midtjylland W+0.00on par

Nordsjælland W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland W ↓

Nordsjælland W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Midtjylland W or draw

70%

Midtjylland W or Nordsjælland W

77%

Draw or Nordsjælland W

53%

Winning margin

Midtjylland W wins by 2+

26%

Nordsjælland W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Midtjylland W 1+ goals

83%

Midtjylland W 2+ goals

53%

Midtjylland W 3+ goals

26%

Nordsjælland W 1+ goals

75%

Nordsjælland W 2+ goals

40%

Nordsjælland W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland W (draw refunded)

62%

Nordsjælland W (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland W at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Nordsjælland W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland W attack 2.36 + Nordsjælland W defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.79

Nordsjælland W attack 1.31 + Midtjylland W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Midtjylland W scores more

47%

level

23%

Nordsjælland W scores more

30%

Midtjylland W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Midtjylland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Midtjylland W win just 29% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
Nordsjælland W win just 31% against the top half (vs 70% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

LDWWD

W

LDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff