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Midtjylland W vs KoldingQ W — Kvindeliga 2019

Midtjylland W
Midtjylland W
Preview
11:00
KoldingQ W
KoldingQ W
8/15/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 3
59%
Midtjylland W
model favours
59%20%20%

Midtjylland W have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Midtjylland W59%
×Draw20%
KoldingQ W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midtjylland W
2.17
KoldingQ W
1.19

Midtjylland W creates 82% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 79 away

creates per match

Midtjylland W
2.36
KoldingQ W
0.94

allows per match

Midtjylland W
1.43
KoldingQ W
1.99

finishing

Midtjylland W+0.00on par
KoldingQ W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midtjylland W ↓

KoldingQ W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Midtjylland W or draw
80%
Midtjylland W or KoldingQ W
80%
Draw or KoldingQ W
41%

Winning margin

Midtjylland W wins by 2+
37%
KoldingQ W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Midtjylland W 1+ goals
89%
Midtjylland W 2+ goals
64%
Midtjylland W 3+ goals
36%
KoldingQ W 1+ goals
70%
KoldingQ W 2+ goals
33%
KoldingQ W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Midtjylland W (draw refunded)
75%
KoldingQ W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midtjylland W at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

KoldingQ W away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midtjylland W attack 2.36 + KoldingQ W defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.17

KoldingQ W attack 0.94 + Midtjylland W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Midtjylland W scores more
59%
level
20%
KoldingQ W scores more
20%

Midtjylland W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Midtjylland W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • KoldingQ W win just 18% against the top half (vs 59% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LDWWD
W
LLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Midtjylland W face KoldingQ W (Kvindeliga)

Kvindeliga returns with Midtjylland W hosting KoldingQ W. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.