Middlesbrough 1–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stoke City

Álvaro Negredo 11'

X. Shaqiri 67'

8/13/2016

Premier League · Round 1Riverside

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Middlesbrough45%

×Draw28%

Stoke City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.96

Middlesbrough

1.33

Stoke City

0.96

Middlesbrough creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 59 away

0.82

creates per match

0.85

1.06

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Middlesbrough

0.82

Stoke City

0.85

allows per match

Middlesbrough

1.06

Stoke City

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

73%

Middlesbrough or Stoke City

72%

Draw or Stoke City

55%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

21%

Stoke City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

74%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

38%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

15%

Stoke City 1+ goals

62%

Stoke City 2+ goals

25%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

63%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 0.82 + Stoke City defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.33

Stoke City attack 0.85 + Middlesbrough defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

45%

level

28%

Stoke City scores more

27%

Middlesbrough at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

G. Imbula

Stoke City · M

7.3

Match Events

11'

Álvaro Negredo↳ G. Ramírez

22'

Ryan Shawcross

22'

A. Forshaw← M. de Roon

29'

30'

30'

48'

67'

69'

78'

J. Allen← Bojan

84'

Philipp Wollscheid

88'

D. Nugent← G. Ramírez

90'

Adam Forshaw

90'

Marko Arnautović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughStoke

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots12

9Corners6

18Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots12

2On Target1

6Off Target9

4Blocked2

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

349Total Passes420

262Accurate Passes330

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2