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Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
D. Spence 37'
12/26/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Middlesbrough50%
×Draw26%
Huddersfield24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.52
Huddersfield
0.96

Middlesbrough creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 12 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.55
Huddersfield
0.96

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.96
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
76%
Middlesbrough or Huddersfield
74%
Draw or Huddersfield
50%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
26%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
78%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
45%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
20%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
62%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
25%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
68%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 66 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.55 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.52

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
50%
level
26%
Huddersfield scores more
24%

Middlesbrough at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
A. PearsMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · G
7.6

Match Events

24'
L. O'Brien← J. Hogg
37'
D. Spence↳ A. Fletcher
43'
Jonathan Howson
43'
Juninho Bacuna
64'
Ashley Fletcher
77'
Kamil Grabara
79'
R. Gestede← M. Johnson
82'
Lewis O'Brien
88'
George Saville
90'
Karlan Grant

Possession

37%Middlesbrough

Shots

14Middlesbrough

Pass accuracy

47%Middlesbrough

Statistics

MiddlesbroughHuddersfield
Overview
37%Possession63%
14Total Shots8
5Corners4
12Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots8
3On Target3
5Off Target4
6Blocked1
10Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
37%Possession63%
275Total Passes494
186Accurate Passes385
68%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls7
3Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield

Middlesbrough beat Huddersfield 1-0 in Championship on December 26, 2019.

Goals: D. Spence (37').

Huddersfield controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 14.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.