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Middlesbrough vs Bristol City — Championship 2025

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
Preview
15:00
Bristol City
Bristol City
11/21/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Riverside Stadium
Big match
54%
Middlesbrough
model favours
54%26%21%

Bristol City score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Middlesbrough54%
×Draw26%
Bristol City21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.53
Bristol City
0.84

Middlesbrough creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.67
Bristol City
1.03

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.66
Bristol City
1.40

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.15scores more
Bristol City-0.03on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
79%
Middlesbrough or Bristol City
74%
Draw or Bristol City
46%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
28%
Bristol City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
78%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
45%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
20%
Bristol City 1+ goals
57%
Bristol City 2+ goals
21%
Bristol City 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
72%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 11 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.40 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.67 + Bristol City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bristol City attack 1.03 + Middlesbrough defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
54%
level
26%
Bristol City scores more
21%

Middlesbrough at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol City have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Middlesbrough
Attack-heavy
Bristol City
Balanced
61%Possession48%
85%Pass accuracy77%
15.6Shots11.1
1.53xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
MiddlesbroughBristol City

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
4
Bristol City
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–10–21–20–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Middlesbrough
LDDDW
City
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middlesbrough face Bristol City (Championship)

Championship returns with Middlesbrough hosting Bristol City. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Middlesbrough host Bristol City at Riverside Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.