Middlesbrough 1–3 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Bristol City

B. Assombalonga 82'

N. Wells 79', 6'

J. Paterson 42'

7/11/2020

Championship · Round 43Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Middlesbrough46%

×Draw27%

Bristol City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.03

Middlesbrough

1.44

Bristol City

1.03

Middlesbrough creates 40% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

1.54

creates per match

1.10

0.96

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.54

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.96

Bristol City

1.34

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.15scores less

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

73%

Middlesbrough or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

54%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

23%

Bristol City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

76%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

42%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

18%

Bristol City 1+ goals

64%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

63%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.54 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Middlesbrough defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

46%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

27%

Middlesbrough at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

A. Weimann

Bristol City · M

8.6

Match Events

6'

N. Wells↳ A. Weimann

42'

J. Paterson↳ A. Weimann

46'

L. Wing← G. Saville

54'

Marvin Johnson

66'

P. Roberts← R. Shotton

66'

M. Tavernier← A. Fletcher

77'

H. Coulson← P. McNair

79'

N. Wells↳ A. Weimann

82'

M. Watkins← F. Diedhiou

82'

B. Assombalonga↳ L. Wing

83'

A. Clayton← J. Howson

83'

C. O'Dowda← N. Wells

87'

Z. Vyner← J. Hunt

87'

Á. Nagy← J. Paterson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughBristol

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots12

9Corners7

11Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots12

4On Target6

3Off Target5

7Blocked1

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

280Total Passes346

186Accurate Passes254

66%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0