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Middelfart vs Roskilde — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
Preview
12:00
Roskilde
Roskilde
10/17/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12
40%
Middelfart
model favours
40%26%35%

Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Middelfart40%
×Draw26%
Roskilde35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.42
Roskilde
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 46 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Roskilde
1.43

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Roskilde
1.33

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
65%
Middelfart or Roskilde
74%
Draw or Roskilde
60%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
19%
Roskilde wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
76%
Middelfart 2+ goals
41%
Middelfart 3+ goals
17%
Roskilde 1+ goals
73%
Roskilde 2+ goals
38%
Roskilde 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
53%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Roskilde attack 1.43 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Middelfart scores more
40%
level
26%
Roskilde scores more
35%

Middelfart at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Middelfart
LLLL
Roskilde
LDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middelfart face Roskilde (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with Middelfart hosting Roskilde. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.