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Middelfart vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
Preview
12:00
B 93
B 93
3/29/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 21
Big match
39%
B 93
model favours
36%25%39%

B 93 have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Middelfart36%
×Draw25%
B 9339%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.39
B 93
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 48 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
B 93
1.71

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
B 93
1.27

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
61%
Middelfart or B 93
75%
Draw or B 93
64%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
16%
B 93 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
75%
Middelfart 2+ goals
40%
Middelfart 3+ goals
16%
B 93 1+ goals
77%
B 93 2+ goals
43%
B 93 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
48%
B 93 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + B 93 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

B 93 attack 1.71 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Middelfart scores more
36%
level
25%
B 93 scores more
39%

B 93 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "B 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Middelfart
LLLL
93
LDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Middelfart face B 93 (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with Middelfart hosting B 93. Match starts March 29, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.