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Metz vs Fortuna Sittard — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Metz
Metz
Preview
12:00
Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
63%
Metz
model favours
63%20%16%

Fortuna Sittard score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Metz63%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
2.08
Fortuna Sittard
0.94

Metz creates 121% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

creates per match

Metz
2.33
Fortuna Sittard
1.17

allows per match

Metz
0.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.83

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Fortuna Sittard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Metz or draw
84%
Metz or Fortuna Sittard
80%
Draw or Fortuna Sittard
37%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
39%
Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
87%
Metz 2+ goals
61%
Metz 3+ goals
34%
Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals
61%
Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals
24%
Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
80%
Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Fortuna Sittard away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 2.33 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.17 + Metz defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Metz scores more
63%
level
20%
Fortuna Sittard scores more
16%

Metz at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Metz score first in only 24% of matches
  • Both teams score in 85% of Fortuna Sittard’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Metz win only 40%
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 70% over 2.5)
  • 70% of Fortuna Sittard’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fortuna Sittard win just 25% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Metz
WWWDL
Sittard
LWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Metz vs Fortuna Sittard — Match Preview

Metz face Fortuna Sittard on July 25, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.