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Mettersdorf vs Wildon — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
CANC
00:00
Wildon
Wildon
4/3/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Mettersdorf47%
×Draw21%
Wildon32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mettersdorf
2.06
Wildon
1.66

Mettersdorf creates 24% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 75 away

creates per match

Mettersdorf
2.47
Wildon
2.08

allows per match

Mettersdorf
1.23
Wildon
1.65

finishing

Mettersdorf+0.00on par
Wildon+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mettersdorf ↓

Wildon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mettersdorf or draw
68%
Mettersdorf or Wildon
79%
Draw or Wildon
53%

Winning margin

Mettersdorf wins by 2+
27%
Wildon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mettersdorf 1+ goals
87%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
61%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
34%
Wildon 1+ goals
81%
Wildon 2+ goals
49%
Wildon 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
60%
Wildon (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mettersdorf at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.23 · 43 matches

Wildon away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mettersdorf attack 2.47 + Wildon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.06

Wildon attack 2.08 + Mettersdorf defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mettersdorf scores more
47%
level
21%
Wildon scores more
32%

Mettersdorf at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mettersdorf vs Wildon — Match Preview

Mettersdorf face Wildon on April 3, 2020 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mettersdorf host Wildon at Sportplatz USV Mettersdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.