MetroStars vs West Adelaide — South Australia NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
MetroStars61%
West Adelaide19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
MetroStars creates 94% more chances
Season form · 89 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over64
- Under36
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
MetroStars ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
MetroStars at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.26 · 89 matches
West Adelaide away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
MetroStars attack 2.21 + West Adelaide defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.19
West Adelaide attack 1.00 + MetroStars defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 61%?"
MetroStars at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 61% does not mean "MetroStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Adelaide Comets
Campbelltown CityMetroStars
Croydon Kings
Adelaide Raiders
Adelaide City
Cumberland United
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide United II
Modbury Jets
Para Hills KnightsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
MetroStars host West Adelaide on Saturday, 11 May 2019 at 05:00. The match is part of the South Australia NPL 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: MetroStars vs West Adelaide
MetroStars beat West Adelaide 4-1 in South Australia NPL on May 11, 2019.
The match was played at T.K. Shutter Reserve (Adelaide).