Metropolitano 2–0 Carlos Renaux: Result & Stats

Metropolitano

FT

2 – 0

Carlos Renaux

6/11/2022

Catarinense - 2 · Round 3Estádio Hermann Aichinger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Metropolitano44%

×Draw28%

Carlos Renaux28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetropolitanoExpected goals in this matchCarlos Renaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.99

Metropolitano

1.33

Carlos Renaux

0.99

Metropolitano creates 34% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

1.43

creates per match

1.09

0.89

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Metropolitano

1.43

Carlos Renaux

1.09

allows per match

Metropolitano

0.89

Carlos Renaux

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitano+0.00on par

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitano ↓

Carlos Renaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Metropolitano or draw

72%

Metropolitano or Carlos Renaux

72%

Draw or Carlos Renaux

56%

Winning margin

Metropolitano wins by 2+

21%

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metropolitano 1+ goals

74%

Metropolitano 2+ goals

38%

Metropolitano 3+ goals

15%

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals

63%

Carlos Renaux 2+ goals

26%

Carlos Renaux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metropolitano (draw refunded)

61%

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitano attack 1.43 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.33

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Metropolitano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metropolitano scores more

44%

level

28%

Carlos Renaux scores more

28%

Metropolitano at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metropolitano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff