Metalourg 1–0 Surkhon: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Surkhon

S. Ubaydullayev 84'

11/29/2020

Super League · Round 25Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Metalourg46%

×Draw28%

Surkhon26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchSurkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Metalourg

1.33

Surkhon

0.94

Metalourg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 97 away

1.05

creates per match

0.84

1.03

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Surkhon

0.84

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Surkhon

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Surkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

74%

Metalourg or Surkhon

72%

Draw or Surkhon

54%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

21%

Surkhon wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

74%

Metalourg 2+ goals

38%

Metalourg 3+ goals

15%

Surkhon 1+ goals

61%

Surkhon 2+ goals

24%

Surkhon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

63%

Surkhon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Metalourg scores more

46%

level

28%

Surkhon scores more

26%

Metalourg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Isayev

59'

E. Chumak

65'

S. Ubaydullayev

73'

S. Sulaymonov← B. Shaydulov

74'

D. Narzullaev← A. Abdulkhakov

82'

S. Andreev

83'

M. Bobojonov← Z. Abdullayev

84'

S. Ubaydullayev

85'

K. Sattarov← M. Isayev

85'

A. Akhmedov← A. Turaev

88'

D. Narzullaev

88'

A. Khodzhiakbarov

90'

K. Sattorov

Metalourg

Surkhon

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Shipilov

74'▲D. Narzullaev←▼A. Abdulkhakov

83'▲M. Bobojonov←▼Z. Abdullayev

85'▲K. Sattarov←▼M. Isayev

Metalourg substitutes

NarzullaevBobojonovSattarovGulomovTursunbaevAnvarovAbdumajidovGofurbekovErgashev

Manager: S. Abdukhujayev

73'▲S. Sulaymonov←▼B. Shaydulov

85'▲A. Akhmedov←▼A. Turaev

Surkhon substitutes

SulaymonovAkhmedovDjabbarovYoldoshevNorovChoriyevAhmedov

Super League: Metalourg 1–0 Surkhon

Metalourg beat Surkhon 1-0 in Super League on November 29, 2020.

Goals: S. Ubaydullayev (84').

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.

Metalourg vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Metalourg 1–0 Surkhon