Metalourg 2–2 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Metalourg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lokomotiv

S. Ubaydullayev 86'

I. Toshpulatov 52'

T. Abdukholikov 66'

K. Makharadze 37'

9/25/2020

Super League · Round 17Metallurg Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Metalourg37%

×Draw29%

Lokomotiv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MetalourgExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.09

Metalourg

1.16

Lokomotiv

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 74 away

1.05

creates per match

1.16

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Metalourg

1.05

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Metalourg

1.03

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalourg+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalourg ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Metalourg or draw

66%

Metalourg or Lokomotiv

71%

Draw or Lokomotiv

63%

Winning margin

Metalourg wins by 2+

16%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Metalourg 1+ goals

69%

Metalourg 2+ goals

32%

Metalourg 3+ goals

11%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

66%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

30%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Metalourg (draw refunded)

52%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalourg at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 78 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalourg attack 1.05 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Metalourg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Metalourg scores more

37%

level

29%

Lokomotiv scores more

34%

Metalourg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

K. Makharadze

46'

K. Sattarov← D. Anvarov

52'

I. Toshpulatov

60'

S. Kilichev← A. Amonov

64'

A. Abdulkhakov← D. Narzullaev

64'

M. Bobojonov← Z. Abdullayev

66'

T. Abdukholikov

70'

M. Bobojonov

82'

A. Ulmasaliev← D. Turopov

82'

A. Yusupov← M. Bikmaev

82'

J. Alijanov← J. Abdumuminov

86'

S. Abramov← K. Makharadze

86'

S. Ubaydullayev

Metalourg

Lokomotiv

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: A. Shipilov

46'▲K. Sattarov←▼D. Anvarov

64'▲A. Abdulkhakov←▼D. Narzullaev

64'▲M. Bobojonov←▼Z. Abdullayev

Metalourg substitutes

SattarovAbdulkhakovBobojonovTursunbaevUrinovIsayevGofurbekovErgashev

Manager: D. Nuraliev

60'▲S. Kilichev←▼A. Amonov

82'▲A. Ulmasaliev←▼D. Turopov

82'▲A. Yusupov←▼M. Bikmaev

82'▲J. Alijanov←▼J. Abdumuminov

86'▲S. Abramov←▼K. Makharadze

Lokomotiv substitutes

KilichevUlmasalievYusupovAlijanovAbramovIbragimovSaidazimovNartadjievShaymanov

Super League: Metalourg 2–2 Lokomotiv

Metalourg and Lokomotiv drew 2-2 in Super League on September 25, 2020.

Goals: K. Makharadze (37'), I. Toshpulatov (52'), T. Abdukholikov (66'), S. Ubaydullayev (86').

The match was played at Metallurg Markaziy Stadion in Bekabad.

Metalourg vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Metalourg 2–2 Lokomotiv