Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1–6 Zorya Luhansk

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Zorya Luhansk

A. Remenyuk 6'

A. Alibekov 90+2'

R. Owusu 77'

O. Gladkyi 71', 38'

A. Sayyadmanesh 55', 9'

10/31/2021

Premier League · Round 13Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv50%

×Draw24%

Zorya Luhansk26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.15

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.70

Zorya Luhansk

1.15

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.55

creates per match

1.39

0.90

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.55

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.90

Zorya Luhansk

1.85

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.72scores less

Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

74%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Zorya Luhansk

76%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

50%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

27%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

82%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

51%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

24%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

68%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

32%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

66%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.55 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

50%

level

24%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

26%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Mikailo Shershen

6'

A. Remenyuk↳ Y. Batyushin

8'

Shahab Zahedi

9'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ O. Gladkyi

26'

Vitali Vernydub

35'

Dmytro Khomchenovskyi

38'

O. Gladkyi↳ S. Zahedi

55'

A. Sayyadmanesh↳ O. Gladkyi

66'

Mikailo Shershen

66'

Mikailo Shershen

70'

Fabinho← Y. Batyushin

71'

O. Gladkyi

72'

D. Nagnoynyi← A. Gromov

72'

Juninho← I. Snurnitsyn

76'

Cristian← A. Sayyadmanesh

76'

77'

79'

79'

79'

Y. Protasov← A. Remenyuk

82'

A. Alibekov← S. Buletsa

90+2'

A. Alibekov↳ D. Favorov

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MetalistZorya

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots10

7Corners2

14Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target6

6Off Target4

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2