Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Oleksandria

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

CANC

14:00

Oleksandria

5/14/2022

Premier League · Round 29Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv37%

×Draw25%

Oleksandria38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.46

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.42

Oleksandria

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

1.23

1.69

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.63

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.69

Oleksandria

1.22

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.63scores less

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

62%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Oleksandria

75%

Draw or Oleksandria

63%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

17%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

76%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

41%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

17%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

77%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

43%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

49%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.63 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

37%

level

25%

Oleksandria scores more

38%

Oleksandria at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff