Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs FC Schalke 04

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Preview

14:00

FC Schalke 04

7/22/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

51%

FC Schalke 04

model favours

25%24%51%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv25%

×Draw24%

FC Schalke 0451%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchFC Schalke 04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.71

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.11

FC Schalke 04

1.71

FC Schalke 04 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.43

creates per match

2.00

1.43

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.43

FC Schalke 04

2.00

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.43

FC Schalke 04

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv+0.00on par

FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

FC Schalke 04 →

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

49%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or FC Schalke 04

76%

Draw or FC Schalke 04

75%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

67%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

30%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

10%

FC Schalke 04 1+ goals

82%

FC Schalke 04 2+ goals

51%

FC Schalke 04 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

32%

FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.43 + FC Schalke 04 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

FC Schalke 04 attack 2.00 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

25%

level

24%

FC Schalke 04 scores more

51%

FC Schalke 04 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

73% of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and FC Schalke 04 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Kharkiv

WLWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff