Mestre 1–1 Adriese: Result & Stats

Mestre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Adriese

12/3/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Mestre41%

×Draw27%

Adriese33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MestreExpected goals in this matchAdriese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.18

Mestre

1.35

Adriese

1.18

Mestre creates 14% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

1.34

creates per match

1.36

0.99

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Mestre

1.34

Adriese

1.36

allows per match

Mestre

0.99

Adriese

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par

Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Adriese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mestre or draw

67%

Mestre or Adriese

73%

Draw or Adriese

59%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+

19%

Adriese wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals

74%

Mestre 2+ goals

39%

Mestre 3+ goals

15%

Adriese 1+ goals

69%

Adriese 2+ goals

33%

Adriese 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)

55%

Adriese (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Adriese attack 1.36 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mestre scores more

41%

level

27%

Adriese scores more

33%

Mestre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff