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Mes Soongoun vs Naft Gachsaran — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Gachsaran
Naft Gachsaran
11/14/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Soongoun42%
×Draw31%
Naft Gachsaran27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
1.11
Naft Gachsaran
0.83

Mes Soongoun creates 34% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Naft Gachsaran
0.80

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Naft Gachsaran
1.14

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Naft Gachsaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
73%
Mes Soongoun or Naft Gachsaran
69%
Draw or Naft Gachsaran
58%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
17%
Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
67%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
30%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
10%
Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals
56%
Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals
20%
Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
61%
Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
42%
level
31%
Naft Gachsaran scores more
27%

Mes Soongoun at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Soongoun vs Naft Gachsaran

Mes Soongoun and Naft Gachsaran drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 14, 2023.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.