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Mes Soongoun vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
11/28/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Soongoun53%
×Draw28%
Damash Gilanian19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
1.36
Damash Gilanian
0.68

Mes Soongoun creates 100% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
81%
Mes Soongoun or Damash Gilanian
72%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
47%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
26%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
74%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
39%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
16%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
49%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
15%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
74%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.36

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
53%
level
28%
Damash Gilanian scores more
19%

Mes Soongoun at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Soongoun vs Damash Gilanian

Mes Soongoun beat Damash Gilanian 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.