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Merw vs Nebitci — Ýokary Liga 2020

Merw
Merw
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nebitci
Nebitci
8/24/2024Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 20Mary Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Merw53%
×Draw23%
Nebitci24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merw
1.82
Nebitci
1.16

Merw creates 57% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Merw
1.24
Nebitci
0.92

allows per match

Merw
1.39
Nebitci
2.40

finishing

Merw+0.00on par
Nebitci+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Nebitci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Merw or draw
76%
Merw or Nebitci
77%
Draw or Nebitci
47%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+
30%
Nebitci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals
84%
Merw 2+ goals
54%
Merw 3+ goals
27%
Nebitci 1+ goals
69%
Nebitci 2+ goals
32%
Nebitci 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)
68%
Nebitci (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Nebitci away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.24 + Nebitci defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Nebitci attack 0.92 + Merw defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Merw scores more
53%
level
23%
Nebitci scores more
24%

Merw at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Merw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Merw 2–1 Nebitci

Merw beat Nebitci 2-1 in Ýokary Liga on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Mary Stadiony in Mary.