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Mérida AD vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
Preview
16:00
Real Unión
Real Unión
11/22/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Romano Jose Fouto
48%
Mérida AD
model favours
48%26%26%

Real Unión score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD48%
×Draw26%
Real Unión26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.52
Real Unión
1.04

Mérida AD creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 56 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Real Unión
0.98

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Real Unión
1.66

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Real Unión →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
74%
Mérida AD or Real Unión
74%
Draw or Real Unión
52%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
24%
Real Unión wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
78%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
45%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
20%
Real Unión 1+ goals
65%
Real Unión 2+ goals
28%
Real Unión 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
65%
Real Unión (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mérida AD scores more
48%
level
26%
Real Unión scores more
26%

Mérida AD at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Real Unión’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Real Unión have scored in 7 games running
  • Real Unión win just 21% against the top half (vs 51% against the bottom)
  • Mérida AD and Real Unión have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
AD
WDLLL
Unión
WLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mérida AD vs Real Unión — Match Preview

Mérida AD face Real Unión on November 22, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mérida AD host Real Unión at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.