Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mérida AD vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
Preview
15:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
4/4/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Romano Jose Fouto
43%
Mérida AD
model favours
43%23%34%

Real Avilés win just 10% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD43%
×Draw23%
Real Avilés34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.69
Real Avilés
1.48

Mérida AD creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
66%
Mérida AD or Real Avilés
77%
Draw or Real Avilés
57%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
22%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
82%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
50%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
24%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
77%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
43%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
56%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mérida AD scores more
43%
level
23%
Real Avilés scores more
34%

Mérida AD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
AD
WDLLL
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mérida AD vs Real Avilés — Match Preview

Mérida AD face Real Avilés on April 4, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mérida AD host Real Avilés at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.