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Mérida AD vs Lugo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
Preview
16:00
Lugo
Lugo
3/21/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Romano Jose Fouto
44%
Mérida AD
model favours
44%28%28%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD44%
×Draw28%
Lugo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.29
Lugo
0.98

Mérida AD creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Lugo
0.84

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Lugo
1.21

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
72%
Mérida AD or Lugo
72%
Draw or Lugo
56%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
20%
Lugo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
72%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
37%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
14%
Lugo 1+ goals
62%
Lugo 2+ goals
26%
Lugo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
61%
Lugo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lugo attack 0.84 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mérida AD scores more
44%
level
28%
Lugo scores more
28%

Mérida AD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Lugo win just 21% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
AD
WDLLL
Lugo
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mérida AD host Lugo

March 21, 2027: Mérida AD take on Lugo in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mérida AD host Lugo at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.