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Merani Tbilisi vs Shevardeni 1906 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
9/23/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 26Stadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Merani Tbilisi46%
×Draw24%
Shevardeni 190631%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Tbilisi
1.73
Shevardeni 1906
1.37

Merani Tbilisi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.76
Shevardeni 1906
1.13

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.61
Shevardeni 1906
1.71

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par
Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Shevardeni 1906 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw
69%
Merani Tbilisi or Shevardeni 1906
76%
Draw or Shevardeni 1906
54%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
24%
Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
82%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
52%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
25%
Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
75%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
40%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
60%
Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

Shevardeni 1906 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.13 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more
46%
level
24%
Shevardeni 1906 scores more
31%

Merani Tbilisi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Shevardeni 1906

Merani Tbilisi beat Shevardeni 1906 5-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.