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Merani Martvili vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Samtredia
Samtredia
4/11/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 6Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Merani Martvili40%
×Draw26%
Samtredia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Martvili
1.42
Samtredia
1.28

Merani Martvili creates 11% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 57 away

creates per match

Merani Martvili
1.51
Samtredia
1.16

allows per match

Merani Martvili
1.41
Samtredia
1.33

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw
66%
Merani Martvili or Samtredia
74%
Draw or Samtredia
60%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+
19%
Samtredia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals
76%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
41%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
17%
Samtredia 1+ goals
72%
Samtredia 2+ goals
37%
Samtredia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
54%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Merani Martvili scores more
40%
level
26%
Samtredia scores more
34%

Merani Martvili at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merani Martvili vs Samtredia

Merani Martvili beat Samtredia 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili.