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Merani Martvili vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
3/21/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 4Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Merani Martvili51%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Zugdidi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Martvili
1.85
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.28

Merani Martvili creates 45% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 25 away

creates per match

Merani Martvili
1.51
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.16

allows per match

Merani Martvili
1.41
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.20

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par
Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Dinamo Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw
73%
Merani Martvili or Dinamo Zugdidi
77%
Draw or Dinamo Zugdidi
49%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals
84%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
55%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
28%
Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Dinamo Zugdidi away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.16 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Merani Martvili scores more
51%
level
23%
Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
27%

Merani Martvili at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Martvili 1–0 Dinamo Zugdidi

Merani Martvili beat Dinamo Zugdidi 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili.