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Mensajero vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Panadería Pulido
Panadería Pulido
5/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Mensajero49%
×Draw24%
Panadería Pulido27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.66
Panadería Pulido
1.17

Mensajero creates 42% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 94 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Panadería Pulido
1.31

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Panadería Pulido
1.21

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Panadería Pulido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
73%
Mensajero or Panadería Pulido
76%
Draw or Panadería Pulido
51%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
26%
Panadería Pulido wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
81%
Mensajero 2+ goals
49%
Mensajero 3+ goals
23%
Panadería Pulido 1+ goals
69%
Panadería Pulido 2+ goals
33%
Panadería Pulido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
64%
Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.66

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mensajero scores more
49%
level
24%
Panadería Pulido scores more
27%

Mensajero at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mensajero 1 – 1 Panadería Pulido

Mensajero and Panadería Pulido drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.