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Mendrisio vs Freienbach — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Mendrisio
Mendrisio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Freienbach
Freienbach
11/11/20231. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Campo comunale Mendrisio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mendrisio49%
×Draw23%
Freienbach28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mendrisio
1.77
Freienbach
1.27

Mendrisio creates 39% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mendrisio
1.62
Freienbach
1.27

allows per match

Mendrisio
1.27
Freienbach
1.93

finishing

Mendrisio+0.00on par
Freienbach+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mendrisio ↓

Freienbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mendrisio or draw
72%
Mendrisio or Freienbach
77%
Draw or Freienbach
51%

Winning margin

Mendrisio wins by 2+
27%
Freienbach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mendrisio 1+ goals
83%
Mendrisio 2+ goals
53%
Mendrisio 3+ goals
26%
Freienbach 1+ goals
72%
Freienbach 2+ goals
36%
Freienbach 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mendrisio (draw refunded)
64%
Freienbach (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mendrisio at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Freienbach away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mendrisio attack 1.62 + Freienbach defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Freienbach attack 1.27 + Mendrisio defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mendrisio scores more
49%
level
23%
Freienbach scores more
28%

Mendrisio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mendrisio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Mendrisio 1–0 Freienbach

Mendrisio beat Freienbach 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Campo comunale Mendrisio in Mendrisio.