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Memaliaj vs Skrapari — League #513 2026

Memaliaj
Memaliaj
FT
3 – 4
Skrapari
Skrapari
4/10/2016League #513League #513 · Round 18Stadiumi Karafil Çaushi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Memaliaj61%
×Draw19%
Skrapari20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Memaliaj
2.44
Skrapari
1.33

Memaliaj creates 83% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Memaliaj
2.10
Skrapari
1.22

allows per match

Memaliaj
1.45
Skrapari
2.78

finishing

Memaliaj+0.00on par
Skrapari+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memaliaj ↓

Skrapari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Memaliaj or draw
80%
Memaliaj or Skrapari
81%
Draw or Skrapari
39%

Winning margin

Memaliaj wins by 2+
40%
Skrapari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Memaliaj 1+ goals
91%
Memaliaj 2+ goals
70%
Memaliaj 3+ goals
43%
Skrapari 1+ goals
74%
Skrapari 2+ goals
38%
Skrapari 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Memaliaj (draw refunded)
76%
Skrapari (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memaliaj at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Skrapari away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memaliaj attack 2.10 + Skrapari defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.44

Skrapari attack 1.22 + Memaliaj defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Memaliaj scores more
61%
level
19%
Skrapari scores more
20%

Memaliaj at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Memaliaj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #513: Memaliaj 3–4 Skrapari

Skrapari beat Memaliaj 4-3 in League #513 on April 10, 2016.

The match was played at Stadiumi Karafil Çaushi in Memaliaj.