Melbourne Victory 5–4 Western Sydney Wanderers

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne VictoryExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.43

Melbourne Victory

1.69

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.43

Melbourne Victory creates 18% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

1.61

creates per match

1.51

1.35

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Melbourne Victory

1.61

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.51

allows per match

Melbourne Victory

1.35

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw

67%

Melbourne Victory or Western Sydney Wanderers

76%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

56%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

82%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

50%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

76%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

42%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

57%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.61 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more

44%

level

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

33%

Melbourne Victory at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Troisi

Western Sydney Wanderers · M

9.2

Match Events

14'

28'

31'

45'

45+3'

B. Folami↳ J. Brimmer

54'

Graham Dorrans

55'

Callum McManaman

56'

Rudy Gestede

61'

N. Müller← J. ODoherty

63'

D. Ryan↳ C. McManaman

64'

T. Russell← Z. Gordon

73'

J. Butterfield↳ R. Gestede

76'

Robbie Kruse

76'

G. DorransPenalty

79'

J. Mutch← G. Dorrans

79'

T. Mourdoukoutas← B. Ibini-Isei

82'

Jake Brimmer

84'

L. Brooks← B. Folami

86'

M. Duke↳ J. Troisi

88'

A. Anderson← L. Broxham

88'

90'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MelbourneWestern

Overview

36%Possession64%

9Total Shots26

5Corners11

10Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots26

8On Target8

1Off Target12

0Blocked6

8Inside Box17

1Outside Box9

Passing

36%Possession64%

306Total Passes534

226Accurate Passes465

74%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls14

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1