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Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney — A-League 2018

Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Western Sydney
Western Sydney
T. Antonis 83'
K. Barbarouses 39' (pen)
Raúl Baena 31'
K. Honda 11'
12/1/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 6Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Melbourne Victory44%
×Draw24%
Western Sydney33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory
1.69
Western Sydney
1.43

Melbourne Victory creates 18% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory
1.61
Western Sydney
1.51

allows per match

Melbourne Victory
1.35
Western Sydney
1.77

finishing

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par
Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory ↓

Western Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory or draw
67%
Melbourne Victory or Western Sydney
76%
Draw or Western Sydney
56%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
23%
Western Sydney wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
50%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
24%
Western Sydney 1+ goals
76%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
42%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
57%
Western Sydney (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory attack 1.61 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.69

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Melbourne Victory scores more
44%
level
24%
Western Sydney scores more
33%

Melbourne Victory at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
K. HondaMelbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory · M
9.6

Match Events

6'
Tarek Elrich
11'
K. Honda↳ T. Antonis
21'
Nick Ansell
31'
Raúl Baena↳ K. Barbarouses
39'
K. BarbarousesPenalty
46'
J. Sotirio← A. Majok
46'
M. Tokich← J. ODoherty
49'
L. Broxham← Raúl Baena
69'
Raúl Llorente
76'
N. Fitzgerald← A. Baumjohann
80'
Brendan Hamill
82'
J. Hope← N. Ansell
83'
T. Antonis↳ O. Toivonen
86'
R. Akbari← O. Toivonen

Possession

56%Melbourne

Shots

19Melbourne

Pass accuracy

51%Melbourne

Statistics

MelbourneWestern
Overview
56%Possession44%
19Total Shots14
6Corners3
12Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots14
11On Target5
5Off Target4
3Blocked5
14Inside Box8
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
529Total Passes407
445Accurate Passes325
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
3Offsides7

Match Recap: Melbourne Victory vs Western Sydney

Melbourne Victory beat Western Sydney 4-0 in A-League on December 1, 2018.

Goals: K. Honda (11'), Raúl Baena (31'), K. Barbarouses (39' pen), T. Antonis (83').

Melbourne Victory controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne.